Identification of ecological conservation priority areas considering the dynamic supply‒demand balance of ecosystem services

Abstract

Identifying ecological conservation priority areas is crucial for enhancing ecosystem stability, ensuring regional ecological security and sustainable development. However, most traditional studies either fail to incorporate ecosystem service flows or lack a systematic model that captures the entire process of ecosystem service supply, transmission, and response. This limitation reduces the spatial accuracy of identification and weakens the coordination of ecological functions. Therefore, taking the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as a case, this study constructs a dynamic supply‒demand balance framework on the basis of service flows. By integrating a process‒oriented flow allocation model and a coupled coordination model, the framework evaluates the dynamic supply‒demand relationship and establishes a comprehensive importance index for ecological protection, combining service supply capacity, supply‒demand matching, and coordination level. Priority areas are identified under different scenarios, and their scientific validity and applicability are verified through cost‒benefit ratio analysis. The results revealed that: (1) flood regulation services are dominated by inter‒city flows, with 72.58 % of paths and 75.71 % of volume, while outdoor recreation and thermal environment regulation services mainly flow within cities, with paths reaching 89.45 % and 97.63 % and flows 93.14 % and 98.9 %. Except for thermal environment regulation service, capital cities show demand spillovers. Additionally, all services display a supply pattern characterized by high values in peripheral regions and low values in central areas. (2) Under the dynamic perspective, the above‒mentioned demand spillovers help narrow spatial supply‒demand gaps and mitigate mismatch levels. Nevertheless, imbalances remain pronounced: flood regulation exhibits the highest mismatch at 83.30 %, followed by thermal regulation at 76.70 %, and recreation at 34.27 %. (3) Under the dynamic supply‒demand balance scenario, 46.81 % of priority areas are green space and 3.56 % blue, covering key ecological areas such as Wuyi and Nanling mountains and Poyang and Dongting lakes. The proposed method integrates spatial flow analysis with supply‒demand matching, correcting approximately 17.78 % of ecological protection priority area delineations and thereby achieving the most favorable cost‒benefit trade‒off. By quantifying mismatches and explicitly identifying responsible entities for ecological protection, the approach enhances the operational feasibility of ecological space planning. It also provides a scalable toolset for implementing adaptive, region‒specific coordination strategies under the broader context of integrated regional development.