Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on e-commerce adoption in emerging economies

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions to daily life, limiting in-person shopping and accelerating the shift to online retail. As lockdowns and social distancing measures were put in place, many consumers turned to e-commerce as an alternative. This study examines how the pandemic affected consumer behavior and evaluates how economic incentives influence the decision to shop online. Using survey data from the Medellín Metropolitan Area in Colombia, we estimate two ordinal logistic regression models to understand (1) how often consumers visited physical stores before making online purchases and (2) how frequently they shopped online. The results show that delivery costs, access to digital devices, and the types of products purchased online all affect whether consumers still visit stores. In contrast, online shopping frequency is more strongly associated with income and the purchase of specific items, such as pet and grocery products. Among the incentives tested, free shipping was more effective than discounts in encouraging consumers to shop exclusively online. These findings provide valuable insights into e-commerce adoption and can help inform strategies to improve urban logistics and support sustainable growth in the online retail sector, particularly in emerging economies.