The role of status quo bias in shaping support for controversial transport policies: The counterfactual test

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.027

Milan L. Moleman , Bert van Wee , Lennard B. Steketee , Noor van den Hurk , Maarten Kroesen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

A biased preference for the status quo could explain the increased support for policies following their implementation. However, the influence of status quo bias on support for transport policies has been analysed to a limited extent only. The counterfactual test serves as a potential method to empirically explore this influence by framing policies as the existing or alternative situation. This paper employs the counterfactual test to ascertain whether individuals disproportionately favour the status quo. To this end, we have designed separate experiments focusing on three transport policies: road pricing, speed limits, and train ticket fare differentiation. The results indicate that status quo bias does indeed influence support for transport policies. Participants prefer each policy option when framed as the status quo. In contrast, support for the same policy option declines when presented as the alternative situation. These findings underscore the irrational tendency to adhere to the status quo, which may stem from psychological commitments or cognitive misperceptions. Therefore, politicians, policymakers, and practitioners should anticipate a bias towards the status quo when introducing controversial transport policies.

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现状偏见在形成对有争议的交通政策的支持中的作用：反事实检验

偏向于维持现状可以解释政策实施后对政策的支持增加的原因。然而，现状偏见对支持运输政策的影响仅在有限程度上进行了分析。反事实检验可以作为一种潜在的方法，通过将政策作为现有或替代情况来实证地探索这种影响。本文采用反事实检验来确定个体是否不成比例地倾向于现状。为此，我们设计了针对三种交通政策的单独实验：道路收费、限速和火车票票价差异。结果表明，现状偏见确实影响了对交通政策的支持。参与者更喜欢在现状框架下的每个政策选项。相反，当作为备选方案出现时，对同一政策方案的支持率会下降。这些发现强调了坚持现状的非理性倾向，这可能源于心理承诺或认知误解。因此，政治家、政策制定者和从业者在引入有争议的交通政策时，应该预见到对现状的偏见。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.