Modelling Species Distribution at the Boundaries of the Earth's Climate

IF 6.3 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Global Ecology and Biogeography Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI:10.1111/geb.70082

Chiara Serafini, Francesca Cosentino, Giovanni Amori, Luigi Maiorano

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aim

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to project species' responses to global changes. The climatic niche of a species is calibrated under current climate conditions and then projected in space and/or time, making model extrapolation an important concern. This issue is particularly relevant when considering species that live simultaneously at the boundaries of the current Earth's climate and at the edges of their physiological tolerance, such as desert-adapted species. Modelling approaches alternatives to SDMs (e.g., hybrid SDMs) have been proposed as a better solution to tackle model extrapolation. These models should explicitly consider the species' physiological thermal tolerance, producing outputs closer to the species' ecology.

Location

Arabian Peninsula.

Time Period

Present, future projections up to 2100.

Major Taxa Studied

Desert mammals.

Methods

We compared correlative SDMs with different extrapolation options (no-extrapolation, clamping, fade by clamping, full extrapolation) and hybrid SDMs incorporating species-specific thermal tolerances of mammals of the Arabian Peninsula. We projected all models under current and future climate scenarios and measured the differences between the outcomes.

Results

We found that different extrapolation options and hybrid SDMs produced important differences at least in future projections, especially for species physiologically adapted to the extreme climate conditions of the desert. Correlative SDMs not allowing for extrapolation beyond the current climate conditions led to more conservative projections, while SDMs allowing for extrapolation were more flexible. Hybrid SDMs produced intermediate results, with up to 93% of the species losing parts of their suitable ranges under future climate scenarios.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight that correlative SDMs cannot track the true thermal tolerances of desert species. Hybrid SDMs hold the premise for a better understanding of the impact of global changes on such species, turning on a spotlight on a neglected but highly endangered component of biodiversity.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

模拟地球气候边界上的物种分布

目的相关物种分布模型（SDMs）被广泛用于预测物种对全球变化的响应。一个物种的气候生态位是在当前气候条件下校准的，然后在空间和/或时间上进行预测，这使得模型外推成为一个重要的问题。当考虑到同时生活在当前地球气候边界和生理耐受边缘的物种（如适应沙漠的物种）时，这个问题尤其相关。建模方法替代sdm（例如，混合sdm）已被提出作为解决模型外推的更好解决方案。这些模型应明确考虑物种的生理热耐受性，产生更接近物种生态的输出。地理位置阿拉伯半岛。时间周期目前，未来预测到2100年。主要分类群研究沙漠哺乳动物。方法比较不同外推选项（不外推、夹紧、夹紧退色、完全外推）的相关SDMs和包含阿拉伯半岛哺乳动物物种特异性热耐受性的杂交SDMs。我们预测了当前和未来气候情景下的所有模型，并测量了结果之间的差异。结果不同的外推选择和混合sdm至少在未来的预测中产生了重要的差异，特别是对于生理上适应沙漠极端气候条件的物种。不允许外推超出当前气候条件的相关sdm导致更保守的预估，而允许外推的sdm则更灵活。混合SDMs产生了中间结果，在未来的气候情景下，高达93%的物种失去了部分适合的范围。本研究结果表明，相关SDMs不能反映荒漠物种的真实热耐受性。混合sdm为更好地理解全球变化对这些物种的影响提供了前提，使人们关注生物多样性中被忽视但高度濒危的组成部分。

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来源期刊

Global Ecology and Biogeography 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

3.10%

发文量

170

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Global Ecology and Biogeography (GEB) welcomes papers that investigate broad-scale (in space, time and/or taxonomy), general patterns in the organization of ecological systems and assemblages, and the processes that underlie them. In particular, GEB welcomes studies that use macroecological methods, comparative analyses, meta-analyses, reviews, spatial analyses and modelling to arrive at general, conceptual conclusions. Studies in GEB need not be global in spatial extent, but the conclusions and implications of the study must be relevant to ecologists and biogeographers globally, rather than being limited to local areas, or specific taxa. Similarly, GEB is not limited to spatial studies; we are equally interested in the general patterns of nature through time, among taxa (e.g., body sizes, dispersal abilities), through the course of evolution, etc. Further, GEB welcomes papers that investigate general impacts of human activities on ecological systems in accordance with the above criteria.