A Hybrid TLBO–XGBoost Model With Novel Labeling for Bitcoin Price Prediction

Abstract

In the digital currency market, including Bitcoin, price prediction using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) is critical but challenging. Conventional methods such as technical analysis (based on historical market data) and fundamental analysis (based on economic variables) suffer from data noise, processing delays, and insufficient data. To make predictions more accurate, faster, and able to handle more data, the suggested method combines several steps: extracting important information, labeling it, choosing the best features, merging different models, and fine-tuning the model settings. Based on the price data, this approach initially generates 5 labels with a new labeling method based on the percentage of average price changes in several days and generates signals (hold, buy, sell, strong sell, and strong buy). Thereafter, it extracts 768 features from technical studies using the TA-Lib library and from an authoritative site. The TLBOA algorithm, which does not get stuck in the local optimum with two updates, was used to select and reduce features to 15 to avoid overfitting. A variety of ML models, including support vector machine and Naive Bayes, use these selected features for training. By using the evolutionary DE algorithm to optimize the XGBoost meta-parameters, we increased the accuracy by 1%–4%. The proposed strategy has performed better than other models, such as XGBoost with 85.66% and gradient boosting with 84.15%, and has achieved an accuracy of 91%–92%.