Analysis of vaccination strategies in a heterosexual HPV transmission model with a case study in Xinjiang of China

Abstract

Vaccination has confirmed efficacy in preventing human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The inclusion of males in vaccination programs remains a subject of debate, and the optimal allocation of vaccines across genders for maximizing benefits remains unclear. This work proposes a heterosexual HPV transmission model with vaccination and employs the data from Xinjiang of China, as a case study to assess HPV vaccination strategies. The dynamics of the model, including the nonnegativity and boundedness of solutions, the calculation of the basic reproduction number (BRN), the stability of disease-free equilibrium, and the uniform persistence of disease, are investigated. Theoretical findings highlight the decisive role of the BRN in determining model dynamics. Furthermore, the optimal vaccine distribution strategy between males and females was established when the vaccine amount is limited. Meanwhile, this work involves fitting and estimating parameters and the current BRN based on actual data regarding with HPV infection and secondary cervical cancer (CC) cases in Xinjiang from January 2009 to December 2019. The numerical simulations are employed to explore the sensitivity of model parameters, especially the vaccination rates, to the BRN and HPV infection and CC with time changes, discuss the impact of vaccine distribution between males and females on the dynamic changes in new cases of HPV infection and CC, and further analyzed the control effect of bivalent and nine-valent HPV vaccines in Xinjiang of China. Additionally, several practical strategies are introduced to manage the continued spread of HPV infection and CC in the region.