From demonstration to diffusion: Community dynamics and incentives analysis in household solar photovoltaic adoption

Abstract

Household solar photovoltaic (PV) systems offer a promising pathway toward decarbonization; however, their widespread adoption remains hindered by low consumer penetration and insufficient diffusion mechanisms. While low-carbon communities have been promoted as prototypes to catalyze PV adoption, existing research lacks a nuanced understanding of how demonstration effects and community behavioral norms shape diffusion dynamics. To address this critical gap, this study employs an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the adoption of PV systems, leveraging comprehensive survey and electricity consumption data from Tianjin, China. The model captures the interplay between prosumers (PV adopters), potential consumers, and external interventions such as economic subsidies and information dissemination strategies. The findings reveal that moderate community behavioral norms, despite achieving peak adoption 8–9 years later than strong norms, rely on small groups to form demonstration effects, gradually achieving high adoption rates over time. With demonstration effects, the adoption rate increases by 20–30 % under subsidy scenarios and by 38.49 % under information dissemination strategies. Tailored policy strategies are essential. The early adoption of kilowatt-hour subsidies works best in communities with weak behavioral norms, while low-carbon pilot communities with strong governance benefit more from initial installation subsidies. Crucially, the combination of information dissemination and demonstration effects emerges as a highly cost-effective alternative to financial subsidies, accelerating adoption while minimizing fiscal burdens. This study highlights the transformative potential of social dynamics and tailored incentives in driving PV diffusion, offering actionable insights to support global low-carbon energy transitions.