Is the human-wild boar co-survival zone possible? A risk assessment of human-wild boar conflict using a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt)

Abstract

Human and wild boars were found to coexist within an environment where ecological and socio-economic systems intertwine, leading to conflict. To assess the potential for mutual dependency and constraint between humans and wild boars, the concept of "co-survival" was proposed. The study focused on Zixi, Chongyi, and Xiushui in Jiangxi Province, which served as a national pilot area for wild boar damage prevention. A total of 203 human-wild boar conflict points and 15 environmental variables from 2022 were selected to predict the spatial distribution of conflict risk. The results revealed the following: 1) The factors influencing human-wild boar co-survival were found to be closely related to both the behavior of wild boars and the natural and socio-economic conditions of the study area. Specifically, areas characterized by steeper slopes and located farther from residential areas or mountains tended to exhibit a larger co-survival zone. 2) Investment in wild boar invasion prevention infrastructure was positively correlated with the extent of the co-survival zone, indicating that increased investment contributed to the expansion of the shared living space between humans and wild boars. 3) Human-wild boar conflict was most prominent in agro-forestry transition zones, with fewer conflicts reported in high-standard farmland areas. Therefore, co-survival between humans and wild boars was considered feasible in low-risk and medium-risk zones under certain condition, where conflict remained within a manageable range.