How does shifting wood products between uses affect their carbon dynamics and climatic impacts? Leveraging MoSiR, a new carbon accounting tool

Abstract

Achieving climate change mitigation targets set in international pledges requires identifying optimal strategies for forest management and wood utilization.

Our study quantified the carbon storage and emission dynamics of the forestry sector using Quebec (Canada) as a case study, focusing on wood products in service and in solid waste disposal sites, over an 80-year period using material flow analysis and a simple decay approach. We assessed carbon stock dynamics and climate change mitigation potential for a business-as-usual (BaU) scenario and seven alternatives. Mitigation potentials were determined by comparing the cumulative climatic effect, expressed as the radiative forcing of greenhouse gas emissions, of each alternative scenario relative to the BaU. These scenarios included variations in wood processing, recycling rates, durability enhancements, and solid waste disposal sites management to evaluate their effects on carbon storage and emissions. Modeling was performed with MoSiR, a new tool developed by Québec’s Office of the Chief Forester, simulating different wood product flows and emissions.

Although long-lived wood products provide substantial carbon storage benefits, they currently constitute only a small portion of the wood processing mix. Focusing solely on these products may therefore overlook the broader climate impact of the forestry sector. Our study highlights that the mitigation potential of wood products largely depends on a product mix that prioritizes durability and circularity. Such a mix extends carbon storage duration and reduces the demand for virgin materials, thereby lowering the climate impact of harvesting by reducing the total area disturbed. Although wood product decay is not traditionally a forest management concept, the fact that harvesting is conducted to produce wood products means that the associated GHG emission dynamics, especially those from solid waste disposal sites, should be part of foresters’ considerations. Our findings emphasize the importance of precise modeling of wood product decay and support policies aimed at reducing emissions from solid waste disposal sites, enhancing substitution effects, and prioritizing long-lived wood products.