The only constant is change: Evidence on the declining role of fossil fuels and the rise of strategic metals in energy transition

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105665

Savaş Tarkun

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study explores the shifting informational dynamics between fossil fuels and strategic metals in the context of global energy transition. Using a dual-frequency framework—frequency-domain Granger causality and time-frequency connectedness—we analyze daily data from 2018 to 2025, covering Brent crude oil, coal, and key strategic metals such as copper, lithium, and nickel. Our findings reveal a structural transformation: fossil fuels have become increasingly reactive, while strategic metals act as forward-looking market leaders. These metals not only represent essential inputs for green technologies but also function as systemic financial signals across time horizons. The results highlight a reconfiguration of energy-related influence networks, underscoring the growing role of resource-critical markets in shaping expectations, volatility, and long-term planning. This study contributes to a more integrated understanding of how material flows and financial signals intersect in the green transition, offering novel insights for energy policy, market design, and sustainable investment strategies.

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唯一不变的是变化：化石燃料作用的下降和战略金属在能源转型中的崛起的证据

本研究探讨了在全球能源转型背景下，化石燃料和战略金属之间的信息动态变化。使用双频框架-频域格兰杰因果关系和时频连通性-我们分析了2018年至2025年的日常数据，涵盖布伦特原油，煤炭以及铜，锂和镍等关键战略金属。我们的研究结果揭示了一种结构性转变：化石燃料的反应性越来越强，而战略性金属则扮演着前瞻性市场领导者的角色。这些金属不仅代表了绿色技术的基本投入，而且还作为跨越时间范围的系统性金融信号发挥作用。研究结果强调了能源相关影响网络的重新配置，强调了资源关键型市场在形成预期、波动性和长期规划方面日益重要的作用。本研究有助于更全面地理解物质流和金融信号如何在绿色转型中交叉，为能源政策、市场设计和可持续投资策略提供新的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

13.40

自引率

23.50%

发文量

602

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.