Nuri Flores-Pérez, Pranav Kulkarni, Marcela Uhart, Pranav S Pandit
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The drylands vesper mouse (Calomys musculinus) is the primary host for Junin mammarenavirus (JUNV), the etiological agent of Argentine hemorrhagic fever in humans. We assessed the potential distribution of C. musculinus and identified disease transmission hotspots under current climatic conditions and projected future scenarios, including severe (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) climate change scenarios in 2050 and 2070. Utilizing tree-based machine learning algorithms, we modeled C. musculinus distribution by incorporating bioclimatic and landscape predictors. The model showed strong performance, achieving F-scores between 80.22 and 83.09%. Key predictors indicated that C. musculinus prefers warm temperatures, moderate annual precipitation, low precipitation variability, and low pasture coverage. Under the severe climate change scenario, suitable areas for the rodent and hotspots for potential disease decreased. The intermediate scenario showed an expansion in C. musculinus distribution alongside increased potential hotspot zones. Despite the complexity of ecological systems and the limitations of the model, our findings offer a framework for preventive measures and ecological studies in regions prone to the expansion of C. musculinus and in hotspots for disease transmission driven by climate change.
期刊介绍：
EcoHealth aims to advance research, practice, and knowledge integration at the interface of ecology and health by publishing high quality research and review articles that address and profile new ideas, developments, and programs. The journal’s scope encompasses research that integrates concepts and theory from many fields of scholarship (including ecological, social and health sciences, and the humanities) and draws upon multiple types of knowledge, including those of relevance to practice and policy. Papers address integrated ecology and health challenges arising in public health, human and veterinary medicine, conservation and ecosystem management, rural and urban development and planning, and other fields that address the social-ecological context of health. The journal is a central platform for fulfilling the mission of the EcoHealth Alliance to strive for sustainable health of people, domestic animals, wildlife, and ecosystems by promoting discovery, understanding, and transdisciplinarity.
The journal invites substantial contributions in the following areas:
One Health and Conservation Medicine
o Integrated research on health of humans, wildlife, livestock and ecosystems
o Research and policy in ecology, public health, and agricultural sustainability
o Emerging infectious diseases affecting people, wildlife, domestic animals, and plants
o Research and practice linking human and animal health and/or social-ecological systems
o Anthropogenic environmental change and drivers of disease emergence in humans, wildlife, livestock and ecosystems
o Health of humans and animals in relation to terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems
Ecosystem Approaches to Health
o Systems thinking and social-ecological systems in relation to health
o Transdiiplinary approaches to health, ecosystems and society.
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