Towards the development of a systems-theoretic model for safety assessment of arctic offshore drilling activities

Abstract

The exploration and development (E&D) of Arctic offshore oil and gas reserves represent a domain with significant potential, yet fraught with formidable challenges and operational risks. The harsh Arctic environment and the complexity of drilling equipment impose many challenges on E&D operations. Addressing these challenges necessitates innovative methodologies capable of detailed analysis of complex drilling tasks and a holistic understanding of risk propagation. This study proposes an integrated framework combining the Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) and Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to enhance the safety analysis in Arctic offshore drilling operations. STAMP systematically identifies unsafe control actions (UCAs) within hierarchical control architectures, whereas FRAM captures functional variability and emergent resonance effects. A case study of drilling activities in the Barents Sea illustrates the applicability and highlights critical operational hazards. The integrated framework facilitates macro-level assessment of functional interactions and micro-level control structure analysis, offering actionable safety constraints. The findings underscore the effectiveness of the framework in addressing Arctic-specific operational risks. This research provides a robust analytical tool for safety management in high-risk environments, thereby providing decision-making support for ensuring the safety of arctic offshore drilling activities.