HIV prevalence among persons deprived of liberty in Brazil, 2017-2023: a time series analysis.

Maria Rayssa do Nascimento Nogueira, Hévila Ferreira Gomes Medeiros Braga, Vitória Talya Dos Santos Sousa, Nathanael de Souza Maciel, Emanuella Silva Joventino Melo, Patrícia Freire de Vasconcelos, Leilane Barbosa de Sousa
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Abstract

Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) prevalence in the population deprived of liberty, in Brazil, between the years 2017 and 2023.

Methods: Time series analysis evaluation, from 2017 to 2023. The number of persons deprived of liberty and the number of HIV cases were collected from the. National Penitentiary Department Information System. In addition, sociodemographic variables were collected from each federative unit on the Atlas Brasil website concerning the National Household Sampling Survey (2021). Joinpoint software was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) through regressions. The relationship between HIV prevalence and indicators was analyzed in GeoDa 1.22.0.4.

Results: The national prevalence of HIV in persons deprived of liberty was 10.84 cases per 1,000 inmates, with an increasing trend (APC 0.3; 95%CI 0.1;0.6). This rate was higher among women (23.64/1,000 inmates), however, it showed a decreasing trend (APC 0.7; 95%CI -1.2;-0.2). However, although being lower among men (10.15/1,000 inmates), the trend in this group was increasing (APC 0.5; 95%CI 0.2;0.8). As for region, the highest prevalence was in the South (15.12/1,000 inmates). Aging rate (p-value 0.014), per capita household income (p-value 0.021) and municipal human development Index (MHDI) adjusted for income (p-value 0.024) showed positive associations.

Conclusion: Nationally, the prevalence was higher among women. However, while the prevalence among men showed an increasing trend, a reduction was observed among women over the period analyzed.

2017-2023年巴西被剥夺自由者中艾滋病毒流行情况:时间序列分析
目的:分析2017年至2023年巴西被剥夺自由人群中人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)流行的时间趋势。方法:时间序列分析评价,时间为2017 - 2023年。被剥夺自由的人数和艾滋病毒病例的人数是从国家监狱部门信息系统。此外,还在Atlas Brasil网站上收集了关于国家住户抽样调查(2021年)的每个联邦单位的社会人口变量。采用Joinpoint软件,通过回归计算年变化百分比(APC)。在GeoDa 1.22.0.4中分析HIV患病率与各项指标的关系。结果:全国被剥夺自由人员艾滋病毒感染率为10.84 / 1000,呈上升趋势(APC 0.3;95%可信区间0.1;0.6)。这一比率在妇女中较高(23.64/1,000名囚犯),但呈下降趋势(APC 0.7;95%可信区间-1.2;-0.2)。然而,尽管在男性中较低(10.15/ 1000),但这一群体的趋势正在增加(APC 0.5;95%可信区间0.2;0.8)。就区域而言,发病率最高的是南方(15.12/1 000名囚犯)。老龄化率(p值为0.014)、人均家庭收入(p值为0.021)和经收入调整的城市人类发展指数(MHDI)呈显著正相关(p值为0.024)。结论:在全国范围内,女性患病率较高。然而,在所分析的期间内,虽然男子的流行率呈上升趋势,但妇女的流行率却有所下降。
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