Multiple sclerosis mortality trends in Spain from 1981 to 2020.

L Cayuela, A de Albóniga-Chindurza, S Gómez Enjuto, J Lapeña-Motilva, S Sainz de la Maza, A González García, A Cayuela
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Abstract

Objective: Assess time trends in mortality from multiple sclerosis (MS) in the Spanish population (1981-2020), considering the influence of independent effects of gender, age, period, and birth cohort.

Methods: MS deaths and populations needed for calculations were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and trend analysis were performed using joinpoint regression software. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was performed using the web-based statistical tool of the US National Cancer Institute to explore the underlying reason for the MS mortality.

Results: ASMR increased significantly in both women and men (1.7% and 1.2% respectively). The joinpoint analysis detected no trend change for women, but for men it detects a first period where rates remain stable (1981-2000; annual percentage change: -0.7%, not significant) followed by a period of significant increase (2000-2020; 2.6%, p < 0.05). For period effects, a steady increase was observed among women since the early 1990s and among men since the late 1990s. A birth cohort-related increase in mortality was detected: women born from 1916 onwards see their risk of MS mortality increase until it peaks in 1956, after which it decreases. A similar pattern is observed in men, albeit with a decade delay (from 1926 to 1966).

Conclusion: ASMR shows a steady increase in both sexes over the last decades, although it has been more intense in men. The decreasing birth cohort pattern for MS mortality in men born since the mid-1960s and women born since the mid-1950s is similar to APC analyses in other countries.

1981 - 2020年西班牙多发性硬化症死亡率趋势。
目的:评估西班牙人群(1981-2020年)多发性硬化症(MS)死亡率的时间趋势,考虑性别、年龄、时期和出生队列的独立影响。方法:MS死亡人数和需要计算的人口从国家统计局获得。采用结合点回归软件进行年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)和趋势分析。使用美国国家癌症研究所基于网络的统计工具进行年龄-时期-队列(APC)分析,以探讨多发性硬化症死亡率的潜在原因。结果:女性和男性的ASMR均显著升高(分别为1.7%和1.2%)。结合点分析没有发现女性的趋势变化,但对于男性,它发现了第一个时期,发病率保持稳定(1981-2000;年度百分比变化:-0.7%,不显著),然后是一段显著增长时期(2000-2020;结论:在过去的几十年里,ASMR在两性中都显示出稳定的增长,尽管在男性中更为强烈。60年代中期以后出生的男性和50年代中期以后出生的女性的MS死亡率下降的出生队列模式与其他国家的APC分析相似。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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