Aging China's cardiac challenge: Projected growth of atrial arrhythmia cases and healthcare preparedness through 2045 - A global burden disease analysis.

IF 2.5 4区医学 Q3 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY

Geriatrics & Gerontology International Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI:10.1111/ggi.70089

Junpeng Xiong, Shuwen Chen, Xiaoli Wu, Bingyin Wang, Binquan You, Ronghui Yu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) poses significant risks of heart failure and stroke. From 1990 to 2021, China's AF/AFL cases surged from 3.20 to 10.78 million. Using Global Burden Disease (GBD) 2021 data and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling, we analyzed trends and projected disease burden through 2045. Age-standardized incidence and prevalence rose by 5.4% and 14.5%, respectively, while mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates declined by 12.2% and 3.8%. By 2045, prevalent cases may reach 23.04 million, with 1.93 million new cases, 220 000 deaths, and 4.21 million DALYs. Key risk factors include hypertension, smoking, high-sodium diet, and obesity. Sex disparities emerged, with females showing better mortality/DALY improvements than males. Population aging and metabolic risks will drive future burden. Targeted interventions (blood pressure control, smoking cessation, sodium reduction) and sex-/age-specific strategies are critical. Innovations in digital health (AI monitoring) and tiered healthcare networks could mitigate risks. Prioritizing China-specific prevention frameworks is essential to address this escalating public health challenge. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2025; ••: ••-••.

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老龄化中国的心脏挑战：预计到2045年房性心律失常病例的增长和医疗准备-全球负担疾病分析。

心房颤动/扑动（AF/AFL）造成心力衰竭和中风的重大风险。1990年至2021年，中国AF/AFL病例从320万例激增至1078万例。利用全球负担疾病（GBD） 2021数据和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型，我们分析了到2045年的趋势和预测疾病负担。年龄标准化发病率和患病率分别上升5.4%和14.5%，死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）率分别下降12.2%和3.8%。到2045年，流行病例可能达到2304万例，新发病例193万例，死亡22万例，伤残调整生命年421万例。主要的危险因素包括高血压、吸烟、高钠饮食和肥胖。出现了性别差异，女性的死亡率/伤残调整年的改善程度高于男性。人口老龄化和代谢风险将推动未来的负担。有针对性的干预措施（控制血压、戒烟、减少钠）和针对性别/年龄的策略至关重要。数字医疗（人工智能监测）和分层医疗网络方面的创新可以降低风险。优先考虑针对中国的预防框架对于应对这一不断升级的公共卫生挑战至关重要。Geriatr Gerontol 2025；••: ••-••.

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来源期刊

Geriatrics & Gerontology International 医学-老年医学

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

6.10%

发文量

189

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Geriatrics & Gerontology International is the official Journal of the Japan Geriatrics Society, reflecting the growing importance of the subject area in developed economies and their particular significance to a country like Japan with a large aging population. Geriatrics & Gerontology International is now an international publication with contributions from around the world and published four times per year.