Multidimensional Performance Assessments in U15 Female Soccer: The Predictive Validity for Different Selection Levels in U17 and Success in Adulthood

Abstract

Female players have largely been neglected in soccer-specific talent research. Particularly, prospective studies examining the predictive validity of multidimensional performance factors for different selection levels—especially players' success in adulthood—remain scarce. This prospective cohort study investigated the predictive validity of multidimensional performance factors for the future success of U15 female players (N = 264) participating in the German Football Association's Talent Development program. All players' kicking, tactical, and psychosocial skills, as well as endurance capacity, were evaluated subjectively. They also completed five objective motor tests (sprint, agility [CODS], dribbling, ball control, and juggling). Players' future success was based on their selection for the U17 Bundesliga (43.6% selection rate), U17 Youth National Team (6.4%), and Women's Bundesliga (i.e., professional level in adulthood; 6.1%). Univariate analyses examined performance differences in each predictor between selected and nonselected players. Multivariate analyses determined whether objective predictors, subjective predictors, or a combination thereof offered the best prediction. Univariate results indicate the predictive validity of both assessments, revealing a trend toward larger effect sizes for higher selection levels and differences in predictor relevance. Multivariate models showed that adding subjective to objective predictors led to an increase in explained variance for participation in the U17 Bundesliga (Nagelkerke's R² = 16%) and Women's Bundesliga (31%), but not U17 Youth National Team (18%). Sprint performance reached significance across models, whereas the sole significant subjective predictor was tactical skills regarding participation in the Women's Bundesliga. Overall, these findings support the practical value of both assessments, which can likely be increased further via more distinct coach ratings.