Do children's time preferences predict future school outcomes?

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102490

Binglan Wu , Shuaizhang Feng , Yijing Zhang , Yujie Han

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper uses a large longitudinal dataset to study the predictive power of children's time preferences on their future school outcomes, accounting simultaneously for cognitive (IQ) and noncognitive skills (the Big Five). We show that controlling for children's IQ and the Big Five substantially reduces the association between time preferences and later outcomes. Based on Shapley-Owen decomposition results, time preferences only have negligible predictive power over both cognitive and behavioral outcomes. In contrast, conscientiousness contributes the most in predicting behavioral outcomes, while IQ and conscientiousness are the most significant predictors of cognitive outcomes.

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孩子的时间偏好能预测未来的学习成绩吗？

本文使用了一个大型纵向数据集来研究儿童的时间偏好对他们未来学业成绩的预测能力，同时考虑了认知（智商）和非认知技能（五大技能）。我们的研究表明，控制儿童的智商和五大因素大大降低了时间偏好和后来的结果之间的联系。根据Shapley-Owen分解结果，时间偏好对认知和行为结果的预测能力可以忽略不计。相比之下，尽责性对行为结果的预测作用最大，而智商和尽责性对认知结果的预测作用最大。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.60

自引率

4.40%

发文量

380

期刊介绍： The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.