A novel method for modeling renewable power production using ERA5: Spanish wind energy

IF 7.1 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI:10.1016/j.seta.2025.104397

Antonio Jiménez-Garrote , Guadalupe Sánchez-Hernández , Miguel López-Cuesta , Inés María Galván , Ricardo Aler , David Pozo-Vázquez

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this work, a novel methodology for the estimation of wind energy resources at different regional levels was assessed. The method consists in employing a machine learning model applied to a virtual power plant at the center of the region, having as input ERA5-derived meteorological variables and real installed capacities and generation data. The method was found to provide enhanced wind capacity factors (CF) estimates in Spain, with RMSE

<

0.18,

R >

0.75 and negligible bias for all the analyzed regions. As an application of the proposed methodology, an enhanced open access database of Spanish wind energy resources (SHIRENDA_Wind) was built. This database consists of hourly values of wind CF for the Spanish NUTS 3 regions covering the period of 1990–2020. SHIRENDA revealed a marked interannual variability of the wind energy resources, the winter interannual CFs changes frequently reaching 30%. The spatial variability of the wind energy resources was found to be considerably high and partially driven by the NAO.

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使用ERA5建模可再生能源生产的新方法：西班牙风能

在这项工作中，评估了一种估算不同区域风能资源的新方法。该方法采用机器学习模型，应用于该地区中心的虚拟发电厂，输入era5导出的气象变量和实际装机容量和发电数据。该方法被发现在西班牙提供增强的风电容量因子（CF）估计，具有RMSE <；0.18, R>0.75，偏差可忽略不计。作为提出的方法的应用，建立了一个增强的西班牙风能资源开放获取数据库（SHIRENDA_Wind）。该数据库由1990-2020年西班牙NUTS 3地区的逐小时风CF值组成。石仁大地区风能资源年际变化明显，冬季CFs年际变化频繁，达30%。风能资源的空间变异性相当高，部分受NAO驱动。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments Energy-Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

CiteScore

12.70

自引率

12.50%

发文量

1091

期刊介绍： Encouraging a transition to a sustainable energy future is imperative for our world. Technologies that enable this shift in various sectors like transportation, heating, and power systems are of utmost importance. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments welcomes papers focusing on a range of aspects and levels of technological advancements in energy generation and utilization. The aim is to reduce the negative environmental impact associated with energy production and consumption, spanning from laboratory experiments to real-world applications in the commercial sector.