The role of carbon sinks and renewable energy in the allocation of China's provincial carbon emissions allowance: From the perspectives of equity, efficiency, and continuity

Abstract

Carbon sinks and renewable energy are crucial natural endowments for achieving net-zero emissions and should be integral to carbon control strategies, including carbon emissions allowance (CEA) allocation. However, the roles of these endowments in CEA allocation remain unclear. This paper presents a comprehensive allocation framework, examining 43 decision scenarios to assess how carbon sinks and renewable energy endowments influence the allocation process for China's carbon abatement target in 2030. These scenarios' equity, efficiency, and historical continuity are evaluated to reveal the influence through the Gini coefficient, EBM-DEA model, and social network analysis. Results indicate that the modified efficiency criterion scenario, where carbon sinks and renewable energy endowments are integrated with the SBM-DEA model, offers the best equity and efficiency. Under this optimal scenario, the capacity of renewable energy endowments to drive economic development and the total amount of carbon sinks directly influence provincial CEA, favoring eastern and southern provinces, which receive higher allowances than northern regions. Conversely, scenarios based directly on natural endowments are less equitable with lower efficiency scores, where the interprovincial differences in CEA are exacerbated. To avoid abrupt fluctuation in provincial development orientations, the historical continuity of each allocation scenario shall be improved. By rationally utilizing the compensatory interactions of multiple allocation criteria, policymakers can enhance allocation equity, efficiency, and continuity. This study aids policymakers in understanding the impact of natural endowments on CEA allocation and carbon emissions reductions from various perspectives.