Predicting Suitable Habitat for Glipa (Coleoptera: Mordellidae: Mordellinae) Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEnt Modeling.

Abstract

Beetles of the family Mordellidae, important global pollinators, include Glipa, the third largest genus, which retains plesiomorphic traits related to pollination and is mainly found between 38° S-38° N. Existing studies on Glipa focus largely on taxonomy and systematics. The ecological response of Glipa to climate change remains poorly understood. Our objective was to investigate how the distribution of Glipa may respond to climate change using a species-level MaxEnt based model with 297 geographic distribution data points and seven bioclimatic environmental variables. The study showed that the MaxEnt model had a high predictive accuracy, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.963. The maximum temperature of the warmest month, mean annual precipitation, and mean precipitation of the driest quarter were the three most important factors affecting the distribution of Glipa. Currently, the suitable distribution areas of Glipa are mainly located in East Asia, Southeast Asia, eastern North America, South America, and central and western Africa. Under future climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitat is expected to increase gradually as global temperatures rise. Under the SSP585 scenario in the 2070s, the suitable habitat area is projected to expand by 53.89% compared to the present. Additionally, the centroid of suitable habitat is expected to shift northward. This study not only deepens the understanding of the distribution patterns of Glipa and their response to climate change but also provides important scientific evidence for the conservation of pollinator diversity.