Distribution Pattern and Change Prediction of Luprops orientalis (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) Suitable Area in East Asia Under Climate Change.

Abstract

Luprops orientalis (Motschulsky, 1868) is an economically important pest in traditional Chinese medicines, widely distributed in East Asia. However, the primary limiting factors affecting its distribution, potential suitable areas, as well as its response to global warming, remain largely unknown. Utilizing 295 filtered distribution points and 10 environmental variables (9 climate variables and 1 land cover type), this study uses the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of L. orientalis under near-current and future environmental change scenarios. The results indicated that precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), temperature seasonality (bio04), and precipitation of the wettest month (bio13) were the most significant environmental variables affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for L. orientalis, while the contribution of average variation in daytime temperature (bio2) was the smallest. Under the near-current climate, the areas of low, moderate, and high suitability for L. orientalis are approximately 1.02 × 10⁶ km², 1.65 × 10⁶ km², and 8.22 × 10⁵ km², respectively. The suitable areas are primarily located in North China, Central China, the Korean Peninsula, and Central and Southern Japan. Under future climate conditions, the potential suitable areas are expected to expand significantly, especially in Central China. However, the high-suitability areas in North China are predicted to experience a slight reduction. With the increase in carbon emission concentrations, the suitable area shows an increasing trend in the 2050s, followed by a declining trend in the 2090s. The centroids of suitable areas will shift to the northeast in the future. These findings enhance our understanding of how climate change affects the distribution of L. orientalis and will assist governments in formulating effective pest control strategies, including widespread monitoring and stringent quarantine measures.