Ballast water management of nuclear wastewater: Tripartite policy analysis

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY

Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107825

Xin Mao , Yusheng Zhou , Kum Fai Yuen

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Abstract

The ocean discharge of treated Fukushima wastewater presents complex governance challenges for radionuclide-contaminated ballast water. This study proposes a tripartite evaluation and optimisation framework targeting flag states, port states, and shipping lines. Stakeholder performance is assessed via PCA-based inspection data, entropy-weighted Cesium-137 diffusion modelling, and ESG-oriented text mining. After Min-Max normalisation, multivariable regression identifies interdependencies, followed by a Nash equilibrium model to simulate strategic responses. To assess robustness, internal sensitivity tests are conducted under policy-driven and market-driven perturbations, while external risks are reviewed to inform scenario extensibility. Results reveal behavioural asymmetries and non-linear interactions: unilateral actions produce trade-offs, but coordinated strategies yield synergistic gains. These findings highlight the importance of a neutral coordinating body to align regulatory sequencing and balance stakeholder responses, supporting stable and adaptive ballast water governance under nuclear risk conditions.

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核废水压载水管理：三方政策分析

经处理的福岛污水向海洋排放对放射性核素污染的压载水提出了复杂的治理挑战。本研究提出了一个针对船旗国、港口国和航运公司的三方评估和优化框架。通过基于pca的检查数据、熵加权铯-137扩散模型和面向esg的文本挖掘来评估利益相关者的绩效。在最小-最大归一化之后，多变量回归识别相互依赖关系，然后是纳什均衡模型来模拟战略反应。为了评估稳健性，在政策驱动和市场驱动的扰动下进行了内部敏感性测试，同时审查了外部风险，为情景的可扩展性提供信息。结果揭示了行为不对称和非线性相互作用：单边行动产生权衡，但协调战略产生协同收益。这些发现强调了一个中立的协调机构的重要性，以调整监管顺序和平衡利益相关者的反应，支持核风险条件下稳定和适应性的压载水治理。

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来源期刊

Ocean & Coastal Management 环境科学-海洋学

CiteScore

8.50

自引率

15.20%

发文量

321

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Ocean & Coastal Management is the leading international journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of ocean and coastal management from the global to local levels. We publish rigorously peer-reviewed manuscripts from all disciplines, and inter-/trans-disciplinary and co-designed research, but all submissions must make clear the relevance to management and/or governance issues relevant to the sustainable development and conservation of oceans and coasts. Comparative studies (from sub-national to trans-national cases, and other management / policy arenas) are encouraged, as are studies that critically assess current management practices and governance approaches. Submissions involving robust analysis, development of theory, and improvement of management practice are especially welcome.