Capturing the complexity of human strategic decision-making with machine learning

IF 21.4 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
Jian-Qiao Zhu, Joshua C. Peterson, Benjamin Enke, Thomas L. Griffiths
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Strategic decision-making is a crucial component of human interaction. Here we conduct a large-scale study of strategic decision-making in the context of initial play in two-player matrix games, analysing over 90,000 human decisions across more than 2,400 procedurally generated games that span a much wider space than previous datasets. We show that a deep neural network trained on this dataset predicts human choices with greater accuracy than leading theories of strategic behaviour, revealing systematic variation unexplained by existing models. By modifying this network, we develop an interpretable behavioural model that uncovers key insights: individuals’ abilities to respond optimally and reason about others’ actions are highly context dependent, influenced by the complexity of the game matrices. Our findings illustrate the potential of machine learning as a tool for generating new theoretical insights into complex human behaviours.

Abstract Image

用机器学习捕捉人类战略决策的复杂性
战略决策是人类互动的重要组成部分。在这里,我们在双人矩阵游戏的初始游戏背景下进行了一项大规模的战略决策研究,分析了2400多个程序生成游戏中的9万多个人类决策,这些游戏的空间比以前的数据集要大得多。我们表明,在该数据集上训练的深度神经网络预测人类选择的准确性高于领先的战略行为理论,揭示了现有模型无法解释的系统变化。通过修改这个网络,我们开发了一个可解释的行为模型,揭示了关键的见解:个体的最佳反应能力和对他人行为的推理能力高度依赖于情境,受到博弈矩阵复杂性的影响。我们的发现说明了机器学习作为一种工具的潜力,可以为复杂的人类行为产生新的理论见解。
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来源期刊
Nature Human Behaviour
Nature Human Behaviour Psychology-Social Psychology
CiteScore
36.80
自引率
1.00%
发文量
227
期刊介绍: Nature Human Behaviour is a journal that focuses on publishing research of outstanding significance into any aspect of human behavior.The research can cover various areas such as psychological, biological, and social bases of human behavior.It also includes the study of origins, development, and disorders related to human behavior.The primary aim of the journal is to increase the visibility of research in the field and enhance its societal reach and impact.
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