Anticipating ecological transformation in the Coorong, Australia: Capacities and knowledge for upstream engagement

Abstract

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are leading to directional changes in ecosystems, making ecological transformations more likely. The need to anticipate and proactively plan for ecological transformation is increasingly recognised. Yet, how change is anticipated and who is involved in foresight processes can shape how ecological transformation is governed and managed. Research has proposed foresight processes to engage stakeholders about ecological transformation. However, empirical research is needed to provide insights into the opportunities and challenges of using foresight in contexts of ecological transformation. This research develops insights on anticipatory capacities and futures knowledge for decision-making about adapting to prospective ecological transformation, drawing on a case study from the Ramsar-listed Coorong region (Yarluwar-Ruwe) in South Australia. It builds on anticipatory governance literature and the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) climate adaptation framework, to understand anticipatory capacities required for upstream engagement on prospective ecological transformation. Findings highlight key anticipatory capacities are a) accepting transformative change is inevitable, b) addressing emotional responses, c) navigating changing values, and d) navigating the politics of anticipation. Anticipatory governance of ecological transformation requires capacities to engage stakeholders on social, political, and emotional dimensions of change. This research highlights the paradoxical nature of futures knowledge, balancing credibility with subjectivity. It underscores the vital role of emotional dimensions in responding to ecological transformation. Upstream engagement that applies foresight to anticipate ecological transformation is needed to support people through anticipatory loss and grief, towards facilitating agency in a changed future. The findings offer insights into anticipatory governance in Australia and internationally.