GIS-based water stress analysis in North African drylands

Abstract

North Africa is experiencing intensifying water stress due to rapid population growth, urban sprawl, and climate variability, with major implications for agriculture and human settlement in its predominantly dryland environment. This study applies Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to assess water scarcity across Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia. Buffer zones of 10, 20, and 50 km around key river systems particularly the Nile, Draa, and Medjerda—were analyzed to evaluate spatial relationships between water access, population density, and agricultural vulnerability. The findings reveal that the 10 km buffer zone around the Nile has undergone 45 % population increase between 2000 and 2020, placing extraordinary pressure on freshwater resources and irrigated agriculture. Libya and Algeria exhibit high hydrological vulnerability, lacking perennial rivers and relying on groundwater extraction, while Morocco and Tunisia face spatially uneven water access. GIS-based zonal statistics show that regions closest to rivers not only host the densest populations but also experience the highest evapotranspiration and land-use change. Over 60 % of North Africa's landmass is classified as high or very high risk for water stress and agricultural decline, particularly in dryland zones beyond 20 km from rivers. The study underscores the critical role of rivers in structuring settlement and farming patterns, while also identifying emerging hotspots of environmental degradation in interior drylands. These results call for urgent adoption of climate-resilient irrigation, decentralized water infrastructure, and enhanced transboundary cooperation. The integrated spatial approach presented herein offers policymakers actionable, location-specific insights to guide sustainable water and land management across North Africa's fragile drylands.