Firearm Acquisition and Criminal Use: Legal and illegal possession of Crime Guns in California (2010−2021)

Abstract

Despite the importance of understanding how gun offenders obtain their firearms, data on acquisition pathways remains limited. Using records of guns recovered in crime in California (2010–2021; n = 370,498), we examine rates of legal and illegal possession, and how they vary across offense types. Linking these “crime gun” records to firearm transactions in the state (2000−2021), we implement Cox Proportional Hazards models to identify characteristics associated with law enforcement recovery from an illegal versus legal possessor. We estimate separate models for violent crime recovery and conduct sex-stratified analyses. Among all recovered handguns, 61 % were illegally possessed, 24 % were legally possessed, and possession status was unknown for 15 %. Legal possession varied substantially by crime type: for example, 56 % of handguns recovered in threats were legally possessed, 37 % in homicides and assaults, and 20 % in robberies. Results from the survival analyses showed stolen firearms were associated with a 31-fold higher hazard of violent crime recovery with an illegal possessor compared to a hazard of 1.8 for legal possession recovery. Sex-stratified analyses revealed patterns consistent with straw purchasing: for example, female buyers with 12+ recent purchases had a 13-fold higher hazard of illegal possession recovery; there was no association with legal possession recovery. A purchaser's prior arrest history was associated with recovery, with larger hazards for legal possession. This study provides the first systematic examination of possession status by crime type. The considerable proportion of legally possessed crime guns, particularly in violent crimes, highlights the need for prevention strategies that address both legal and illegal acquisition pathways.