Assignment of passenger flow in urban agglomerations via land transport channels considering competitive relationships

Abstract

With the rapid advancement of urbanization, urban agglomerations have become the core carrier of regional economic development. To address the limitations associated with neglecting the competitive dynamics between intermodal transport systems in traffic assignment from an urban agglomeration perspective, this study proposes a novel traffic assignment method that integrates both road and railway networks while considering their competitive interactions. Firstly, an enhanced composite network model of highways and railways is established by refining the Space-L method. Subsequently, leveraging the principles of generalized cost theory and competition-cooperation theory, a network impedance model is developed to effectively assign passenger flows. Finally, missing data are inferred through OD reverse reasoning, enabling precise forecasting of future passenger flow distribution via network analysis. In the case of the Ha-Chang urban agglomeration, the proposed method achieved an average error rate of 4.93 %, compared to 9.44 % for the four-stage method. By providing accurate passenger flow forecasts, this approach facilitates policymakers in promoting coordinated development within urban agglomerations.