Financial pretrial release and innovations in outcome measurement

Abstract

Using a sample of released pretrial defendants (n = 1776), we examine the effects of financial release on two conventional pretrial outcomes—new arrest and any failure to appear (FTA)—as well as two proposed, disaggregated outcomes: inconsequential FTA and consequential FTA. The distinction between these subtypes is based on whether a missed court appearance triggers a formal judicial response, which we interpret as a proxy for willfulness. To address potential selection bias, we apply inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPW) and estimate average treatment effects on the treated (ATT). Results indicate that financial release significantly reduces the likelihood of inconsequential FTA, associated with unwilful nonappearance (ATT = −0.16, p < .001), but has no effect on consequential FTA, associated with willful nonappearance. Further analyses reveal no significant differences in these effects across self-reported racial/ethnic or sex categories. By bifurcating FTA into conceptually distinct subtypes, our findings suggest that the impact of financial release depends on the nature of court noncompliance and may outweigh concerns about demographic disparities in release decisions. These results offer guidance for reform efforts aimed at minimizing the collateral consequences of the pretrial process by limiting the use of financial conditions to incentivize appearance.