2024 U.S. presidential elections: An event study for U.S. and non-U.S. fossil fuel and renewable listed firms

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI:10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104430

António Miguel Martins , Bruno Albuquerque , Luís Sardinha , Nuno Moutinho

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Abstract

This study examines the short-term market effect of Donald Trump’ victory in the 2024 US presidential election on largest US and non-US listed worldwide fuel fossil and renewable firms. Employing an event study methodology, we observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction for worldwide renewable listed firms. An analysis by economic zones reveals the existence of negative abnormal returns for renewable energy firms in the US, Europe, India and in the rest of the world. In the case of China, abnormal returns are not statistically significant. With respect to worldwide fossil fuel listed firms, abnormal returns are generally not statistically significant. However, regarding US firms, we observe positive and statistically significant abnormal returns. These abnormal returns are explained by the change of US energy policy (pro-oil and gas policy) and the expected cut in subsidies and lower profitability of investments in green energies. Finally, our study provide insight into which firm-specific characteristics emerge as value drives around US presidential elections. The results show that despite the change in environmental policy in the US, favourable to fossil energy, the stock markets reward firms with high environmental ratings. Overall, our results indicate that 2024 US presidential election, for implying a change in US energy policy, has relevant policy implications for energy listed firms.

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2024年美国总统大选：美国和非美国的事件研究。化石燃料和可再生能源上市公司

本研究考察了唐纳德·特朗普在2024年美国总统大选中获胜对美国和非美国上市的全球最大的化石燃料和可再生能源公司的短期市场影响。采用事件研究方法，我们观察到全球可再生能源上市公司的负面和统计显著的股价反应。一项针对经济区的分析显示，在美国、欧洲、印度和世界其他地区，可再生能源公司存在负异常回报。就中国而言，异常收益在统计上并不显著。就全球化石燃料上市公司而言，异常收益一般不具有统计学意义。然而，对于美国公司，我们观察到正的和统计显著的异常回报。美国能源政策（支持石油和天然气的政策）的变化、补贴的预期削减以及绿色能源投资的盈利能力下降，解释了这些异常回报。最后，我们的研究提供了洞察哪些公司特有的特征在美国总统选举中成为价值驱动因素。结果表明，尽管美国的环境政策发生了变化，有利于化石能源，但股票市场仍奖励环境评级高的公司。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，2024年美国总统大选意味着美国能源政策的变化，对能源上市公司具有相关的政策影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Review of Financial Analysis BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

9.80%

发文量

366

期刊介绍： The International Review of Financial Analysis (IRFA) is an impartial refereed journal designed to serve as a platform for high-quality financial research. It welcomes a diverse range of financial research topics and maintains an unbiased selection process. While not limited to U.S.-centric subjects, IRFA, as its title suggests, is open to valuable research contributions from around the world.