Fragmented Arctic science: Permafrost as a salient feature in the divergence between geopolitical and chronopolitical perspectives

Abstract

Russia’s war in Ukraine has drastically affected the Arctic governance, freezing institutional mechanisms established in the post-Cold War period. Among the lasting consequences, scientific cooperation between Western and Russian research communities has been impaired involving international projects on critical environmental issues in the polar region. Although joint research activities have been curtailed since February 2022, efforts have been made to revive Arctic scientific dialogue to address the pressing concerns related to rapid climate change in the polar region. Monitoring permafrost conditions is a key feature in anticipating the future trajectory of the planet. However, about 65% of Russia’s territory is covered by permafrost, which represents a serious blind spot for the Western scientific community without data access. Given the current geopolitical breakdown, this situation could jeopardize climate modeling and ultimately pose a threat to international security. At the same time, Russia is pursuing and developing Arctic scientific cooperation with non-Western partners, including China and India. These countries are now becoming competitors with the Western research community, thereby creating alternative channels for the flow of scientific knowledge. Using the example of permafrost research, this article examines the long-term implications of the decoupling of Russia and the West in the domain of polar science.