Majority illusion drives the spontaneous emergence of alternative states in common-pool resource games with network-based information

IF 4.1 2区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

iScience Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI:10.1016/j.isci.2025.112831

Nicolas Schrama , Andrew R. Tilman , Vítor V. Vasconcelos

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Common-pool resources (CPRs), including fisheries and the atmosphere, are critical for ecological, social, and economic sustainability but are easily overused. We use an agent-based model to investigate how social networks shape resource extraction outcomes. Networks with highly visible nodes can create a “majority illusion” in which most users believe high-intensity extraction is dominant, even if it is not. This misperception can push the entire population toward one of two possible states: an abundant, high-welfare resource or a depleted, low-welfare one. Aligning users’ environmental impact with their visibility can mitigate this effect and steer the system toward a single, predictable outcome. These results suggest that network-based policies, such as reshaping information flows, particularly targeting high-impact hubs, could help stabilize cooperative behaviors and encourage sustainable management of CPRs, reducing the risk of tragedy-of-the-commons scenarios.

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在基于网络信息的公共资源博弈中，多数错觉驱动了替代状态的自发出现

包括渔业和大气在内的公共资源（CPRs）对生态、社会和经济的可持续性至关重要，但很容易被过度使用。我们使用基于代理的模型来研究社会网络如何影响资源提取结果。具有高度可见节点的网络会产生一种“多数错觉”，在这种错觉中，大多数用户认为高强度的提取是主导的，即使事实并非如此。这种误解会将整个人口推向两种可能的状态之一：丰富的高福利资源或枯竭的低福利资源。将用户对环境的影响与他们的可见性结合起来可以减轻这种影响，并引导系统走向单一的、可预测的结果。这些结果表明，以网络为基础的政策，如重塑信息流，特别是针对高影响力的中心，可以帮助稳定合作行为，鼓励可持续的cpr管理，减少公地悲剧情景的风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

iScience Multidisciplinary-Multidisciplinary

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

1.70%

发文量

1972

审稿时长

6 weeks

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