Systemic, sectoral, and spatial propagation of CO₂ emissions: an inter-regional analysis for the Brazilian economy

Abstract

This study analyzes the propagation of CO₂ emissions in Brazil through sectoral, spatial, and systemic lenses, using interregional input-output data for 2011 and 2019. A regional typology is constructed based on trade flows and emission intensity relative to gross output. The results show that states in the South and Southeast, with more diversified economies, emit less CO₂ per unit of output. In contrast, emissions in the Central-North are mainly associated with the primary sector. Regions characterized by high emissions and low productive integration are concentrated in ecologically sensitive biomes such as the Amazon, Cerrado, and Atlantic Forest. Although the primary sector has declined in recent years, it remains central to their economic structure, while intermediate areas depend on emission-intensive activities. The growing integration of Brazil’s primary sector into global markets has reinforced these patterns. These findings highlight the sustainability challenges posed by a growth model reliant on land-use change in fragile ecosystems and enduring infrastructure constraints.