Estimation of the number of people affected by post COVID-19 condition in Switzerland in 2023: a mathematical model

IF 4.8 2区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107963

Janne Estill , Emneteab G. Belayneh , Sarah Beale , Olivia Keiser

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives

We aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of post COVID-19 condition (presence of symptoms related to a SARS-CoV-2 infection at least 3 months earlier) in Switzerland in 2023 using mathematical modeling.

Methods

We constructed a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, extended with a module to calculate incidence and prevalence of post COVID-19 condition stratified by symptom cluster (fatigue, neuropsychiatric, and cardiopulmonary). We explored different scenarios to account for the uncertainty in model parameters and reported the mean value with a full range of results.

Results

From October to December 2023, the model projected 61,300 (range across scenarios: 7900-195,000) new cases of post COVID-19 in Switzerland. The number of individuals with prevalent post COVID-19 remained stable during the year, decreasing minimally from 386,900 (87,500-930,600) in June to 380,800 (62,100-990,800) in December 2023. Neuropsychiatric disorders were the most common symptoms. About half of the individuals with post COVID-19 condition at the end of 2023 had been affected by the symptoms by more than 6 months.

Conclusions

At least 1% of the Swiss population is affected by the long-term consequences of COVID-19, and this proportion is likely to be multiple times higher. The prevalence is expected to remain at a high level also in the future.

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估计2023年瑞士受COVID-19后状况影响的人数：数学模型

目的：我们旨在使用数学模型估计2023年瑞士COVID-19后病情（至少3个月前出现与SARS-CoV-2感染相关的症状）的患病率和发病率。方法：构建了SARS-CoV-2传播的确定性区室模型，并扩展了按症状聚类（疲劳、神经精神、心肺）分层计算COVID-19后病情发病率和流行率的模块。我们探索了不同的情景，以解释模型参数的不确定性，并报告了具有全范围结果的平均值。结果：在2023年10月至12月期间，该模型预测瑞士新发COVID-19病例61,300例（各情景范围：7900-195,000例）。2019冠状病毒病后流行病例全年保持稳定，从6月的38.69万人（87500 - 93.06万人）小幅下降至2023年12月的38.08万人（62100 - 99.08万人）。神经精神障碍是最常见的症状。到2023年底，约有一半的COVID-19后患者受症状影响超过6个月。结论：至少有1%的瑞士人口受到COVID-19长期后果的影响，这一比例可能高出数倍。预计今后的流行率也将保持在较高水平。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Infectious Diseases 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

18.90

自引率

2.40%

发文量

1020

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： International Journal of Infectious Diseases (IJID) Publisher: International Society for Infectious Diseases Publication Frequency: Monthly Type: Peer-reviewed, Open Access Scope: Publishes original clinical and laboratory-based research. Reports clinical trials, reviews, and some case reports. Focuses on epidemiology, clinical diagnosis, treatment, and control of infectious diseases. Emphasizes diseases common in under-resourced countries.