Subtropical warming enhances North Pacific midlatitude winter storm track activity in recent decades

IF 8.4 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-01108-7

Pei-Chun Hsu, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Hao-Jhe Hong, Ying-Ting Chen

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Abstract

Changes in storm track intensity and position are key indicators of atmospheric responses to global warming. In this study, we identified a robust northward shift and intensification of midlatitude storm track activity during boreal winters in the North Pacific since the early 1980s. This trend is linked to subtropical tropospheric warming, which has enhanced the midlatitude meridional temperature gradient. This gradient–storm track relationship is evident in both long-term trends and interannual variations. By contrast, Arctic warming weakens near-surface temperature gradients and negatively correlates with storm track activity. Additionally, tropical upper-tropospheric warming appears to strengthen the meridional gradient but induces equatorward shifts in the jet stream and storm track, countering the observed poleward trends. Numerical simulations suggest that the sea surface warming observed in the subtropical North Pacific and Indian Ocean contributes to storm track and circulation changes, providing insights into midlatitude atmospheric dynamics in the context of global warming.

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近几十年来，副热带变暖增强了北太平洋中纬度冬季风暴路径的活动

风暴路径强度和位置的变化是大气对全球变暖响应的关键指标。在这项研究中，我们确定了自20世纪80年代初以来北太平洋北方冬季中纬度风暴路径活动的强劲北移和强化。这一趋势与副热带对流层变暖有关，后者增强了中纬度经向温度梯度。这种梯度-风暴路径关系在长期趋势和年际变化中都很明显。相反，北极变暖减弱了近地表温度梯度，并与风暴路径活动负相关。此外，热带对流层上层变暖似乎加强了经向梯度，但导致急流和风暴路径向赤道方向移动，与观测到的极地趋势相反。数值模拟表明，在副热带北太平洋和印度洋观测到的海面变暖有助于风暴路径和环流变化，为全球变暖背景下的中纬度大气动力学提供了见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.