Public Perception of Recidivism Risk among Released Correctional Inmates in Japan.

IF 1.2 4区社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI:10.1177/0306624X251348606

Masaru Takahashi

{"title":"Public Perception of Recidivism Risk among Released Correctional Inmates in Japan.","authors":"Masaru Takahashi","doi":"10.1177/0306624X251348606","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the disparity between public perception and official statistics on recidivism rates in Japan and investigates the impacts of gender and age on these estimates. A web-based survey with 381 participants was conducted. Participants estimated five-year reimprisonment rates for seven offense categories and the overall average. Results showed that participants overestimated recidivism rates for all offenses, with significant overestimation for sex offenses, robbery, and drug offenses by 27.35, 23.11, and 18.54 percentage points, respectively. A two-factor analysis of variance revealed no significant gender effect on estimated rates. Age had a significant effect on drug offenses (F [4,371] = 3.13, p = .015, η2 = .033), with the 40s age group estimating higher rates than the 20s group. Findings underscore the discrepancies between public perception and actual recidivism, highlighting the need to understand these perceptions for effective policy and risk communication in the criminal justice system.","PeriodicalId":48041,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology","volume":" ","pages":"306624X251348606"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X251348606","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study examines the disparity between public perception and official statistics on recidivism rates in Japan and investigates the impacts of gender and age on these estimates. A web-based survey with 381 participants was conducted. Participants estimated five-year reimprisonment rates for seven offense categories and the overall average. Results showed that participants overestimated recidivism rates for all offenses, with significant overestimation for sex offenses, robbery, and drug offenses by 27.35, 23.11, and 18.54 percentage points, respectively. A two-factor analysis of variance revealed no significant gender effect on estimated rates. Age had a significant effect on drug offenses (F [4,371] = 3.13, p = .015, η² = .033), with the 40s age group estimating higher rates than the 20s group. Findings underscore the discrepancies between public perception and actual recidivism, highlighting the need to understand these perceptions for effective policy and risk communication in the criminal justice system.

查看原文本刊更多论文

日本释囚再犯风险的公众认知。

本研究考察了日本公众对累犯率的看法与官方统计数据之间的差异，并调查了性别和年龄对这些估计的影响。一项有381名参与者的网络调查进行了。参与者估计了七种犯罪类别的五年再监禁率和总体平均值。结果表明，参与者高估了所有犯罪的再犯率，其中性犯罪、抢劫和毒品犯罪的再犯率分别被高估了27.35、23.11和18.54个百分点。双因素方差分析显示，性别对估计比率没有显著影响。年龄对毒品犯罪有显著影响(F [4,371] = 3.13, p =。015, η2 = .033)，其中40多岁年龄组的患病率高于20多岁年龄组。调查结果强调了公众认知与实际累犯之间的差异，强调需要了解这些认知，以便在刑事司法系统中制定有效的政策和进行风险沟通。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

6.70%

发文量

164

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Press/Politics is an interdisciplinary journal for the analysis and discussion of the role of the press and politics in a globalized world. The Journal is interested in theoretical and empirical research on the linkages between the news media and political processes and actors. Special attention is given to the following subjects: the press and political institutions (e.g. the state, government, political parties, social movements, unions, interest groups, business), the politics of media coverage of social and cultural issues (e.g. race, language, health, environment, gender, nationhood, migration, labor), the dynamics and effects of political communication.