Determinants of air transport CO₂ emissions in OECD countries

Abstract

Whether advanced economies can meet their emission reduction targets and effectively address climate change remains a critical global concern. OECD countries account for approximately one-third of global CO₂ emissions, highlighting their pivotal role in achieving sustainable development goals. The air transport industry is one of the fastest-growing sectors globally and aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Unlike previous studies that primarily focus on total emissions or cross-sectoral comparisons, this study examines the specific determinants of air transport CO₂ emissions in OECD countries. Using panel data from 38 member states over the period 2013–2023, the analysis is conducted in three stages. First, key drivers of air transport CO₂ emissions are assessed at the aggregate level. Second, countries are grouped into two broad geographic regions to investigate regional heterogeneity through separate regressions. Third, a country-specific analysis is conducted for the top emitters to explore national trends. This multi-level approach provides a comprehensive understanding of emission dynamics at macro, regional, and national scales. The findings indicate that GDP growth, GDP per capita, and international tourism significantly increase air transport CO₂ emissions, while international trade appears to have a mitigating effect. These results carry important policy implications for OECD countries as they strive to meet their emission reduction commitments, and the 2050 net-zero target.