The impact of urban shrinkage on agricultural production efficiency—A case study of the lower Yellow River region in China

Abstract

Urban shrinkage is a global development phenomenon. Its multi-dimensional effects have become a new topic in academia. While existing literature presents both positive and negative impacts, consensus remains elusive. Agricultural production efficiency (APE), as an indicator of urban-rural dynamics and regional system restructuring, offers valuable insights into urban shrinkage external effects. This study examines 82 counties in the lower Yellow River region of China, using panel data from 2010 to 2021 to investigate how urban shrinkage impacts APE and its underlying mechanisms. The Super-SBM model is applied to evaluate APE, alongside fixed-effect and mediation-effect models for empirical analysis. (1) During the research period, the proportion of shrinking counties reached 65.85 %, and APE showed a phased characteristic of “slow growth—rapid increase—sustained rise,” and the efficiency improvement in shrinking cities was significantly higher; (2) Urban shrinkage has a significant positive impact on APE, which remains consistent after a series of robustness tests; (3) Urban shrinkage positively impacts APE through scalization, intensification, and mechanization, scaling has the most substantial effect, followed by intensification, while mechanization plays a lesser role. The results suggest that although urban shrinkage leads to population loss, it also creates opportunities for agricultural transformation and upgrading through labor substitution. This offers a novel sight on urban shrinkage effects and offering implications for advancing agricultural modernization and regional coordinated development.