Out of flood front areas: Wetland restoration may reduce internal displacement

Abstract

Heavy rainfall and flooding have triggered record numbers of displacements in southern Brazil. Evidence indicates that human-driven climate change is exacerbating displacement trends in South America. Human factors, including inadequate flood protection systems and wetland degradation for agricultural expansion, further amplified the devastation. The economic toll is staggering, with losses exceeding US$6.1 billion in income and recovery costs estimated at US$7.2 billion. We advocate for a multi-stakeholder approach that integrates wetland restoration, disaster risk financing, and institutional coordination, aligning with existing frameworks such as Brazil’s National Climate Change Policy and Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan. Displacement costs are still not often integrated into national policies and planning. Voluntary relocation, often without minimal support from local governments, is the overall rule in many hazard-exposed communities. Planned relocation is a complex, long-term strategy requiring substantial investment. Options of early warning and shelter may be discouraging where the perceived risk is high. In such cases, state officials may incentivize landowners to abandon lands destined for wetland restoration. Although the idea represents a significant paradigm shift, there are few available options where the river fluctuations are extreme. Beyond relocating at-risk communities, effective flood risk management must incorporate wetland restoration into climate adaptation policies. Lessons from global cases demonstrate the need for structured funding, landowner incentives, and community-driven relocation strategies. As Brazil prepares to host COP30, prioritizing wetland recovery could position the country as a leader in climate resilience while addressing the urgent needs of flood-vulnerable populations.