Geographic Variation in Multigenerational Mobility

Abstract

Using complete-count register data spanning three generations, we document spatial patterns in inter- and multi-generational mobility in Sweden. Across municipalities, grandfather–child correlations in education or earnings tend to be larger than the square of the parent–child correlations, suggesting that the latter understate status transmission in the long run. Yet, conventional parent–child correlations capture regional differences in long-run transmission and therefore remain useful for comparative purposes. We further find that the within-country association between mobility and income inequality (the “Great Gatsby Curve”) is at least as strong in the multi- as in the inter-generational case. Interpreting those patterns through the lens of a latent factor model, we find that regional differences in mobility primarily reflect variation in the transmission of latent advantages, rather than in how those advantages translate into observed outcomes.