Comparing Canada's OncoSim-Breast model with the United States' Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) breast cancer models.

Abstract

Background: The OncoSim-Breast model, developed by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer and Statistics Canada, represents breast cancer-related events in the Canadian female population. This study aimed to compare OncoSim-Breast with recent results from the United States' National Cancer Institute's Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) breast cancer models. The primary focus was on the impact of extending breast cancer screening to women aged 40 to 49.

Data and methods: The OncoSim-Breast model used Canadian demographics, competing mortality, and test performance, while the CISNET models used comparable United States data to analyze 10 different mammography screening scenarios. Lifetime outcomes were calculated for a cohort of 40-year-old women born in 1980, assuming perfect adherence to digital mammography screening. OncoSim-Breast's estimates were compared with the median and range of estimates from the five CISNET models. The primary outcomes were breast cancer deaths averted and life years gained per 1,000 40-year-old women.

Results: OncoSim-Breast projected that starting screening at age 40 would lead to 1.7 breast cancer deaths averted and 53 life years gained per 1,000 women, compared with starting screening at age 50. CISNET models projected a median of 1.3 breast cancer deaths averted (range 0.8 to 3.2) and 43 life years gained (range 31 to 103) per 1,000 women for the same scenario. Secondary outcomes estimated by OncoSim-Breast and CISNET models were similarly consistent and comparable.

Interpretation: This study demonstrates that OncoSim-Breast's estimates of the impact of starting breast cancer screening earlier align with those from CISNET models.