Trends in HPV-positive cervical cancer prevalence: a retrospective study from 2013 to 2020.

Abstract

Background: Cervical cancer ranks as the fourth most common cancer among women globally, mainly linked to persistent high-risk HPV infection. In China, significant challenges persist, notably the low rates of HPV vaccination and a substantial case burden. This study retrospectively examined HPV-related cervical cancer data from a tertiary hospital spanning the years 2013 to 2020, to evaluate annual and age-specific incidence trends and offer insights for prevention and treatment strategies.

Methods: The retrospective analysis encompassed patients who utilized the gynecological outpatient and inpatient services at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from 2013 to 2020. HPV genotyping, covering 21 subtypes, was conducted using hybrid capture-based assays. The assessment of cervical biopsy disease etiology was performed by a senior pathologist.

Results: During the study period, a total of 9,194 cases of HPV-positive individuals were identified, among which 479 cases (5.21%) were diagnosed with cervical cancer. From 2013 to 2020, there was a statistically significant decline in the overall incidence of HPV-positive cervical cancer (Z=-4.061, P < 0.001), as well as in the incidence of squamous cell carcinoma (Z=-4.595, P < 0.001). However, the incidence of adenocarcinoma did not exhibit a significant change (Z = 0.118, P = 0.906). Regarding age distribution, a significant decrease in cervical cancer incidence was observed in patients aged 36 to 64 years (Z=-2.658, P = 0.008). In contrast, the incidence remained relatively stable in patients aged 65 years and older (Z = 0.071, P = 0.943). The incidence of squamous cell carcinoma increased with age, peaking at 27.06% in individuals over 65 years.

Conclusion: The decline in HPV-positive cervical cancer cases highlights the success of China's screening and post-2016 vaccination efforts. However, rising HPV infections in younger women and ongoing cancer risks in older groups emphasized the need to broaden adolescent vaccinations, sexual health education, and lifelong screening.