Assessing the spatial influence of deforestation on malaria incidence in Pará State, Amazon region, Brazil, 2008-2019.

IF 2.5 4区医学 Q2 PARASITOLOGY

Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz Pub Date : 2025-06-13 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1590/0074-02760240143

Carla Gisele Ribeiro Garcia, Beatriz C Ribeiro, Alcinês S Souza Júnior, Lilian Jéssica P Lima, Marinete M Póvoa, Gabriel Z Laporta, Maristela G Cunha

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Abstract

Background: Malaria transmission is prevalent in tropical regions and is heavily influenced by environmental factors such as deforestation, which is particularly significant in the Brazilian Amazon, especially in Pará State.

Objective: This study aimed to assess the relationship between deforestation indicators and malaria incidence across all 144 municipalities in Pará.

Methods: Using municipal-level data from 2008 to 2019, the study applied geographically weighted regression (GWR) to analyse spatial relationships between malaria incidence and deforestation metrics. These metrics included forest cover loss from the previous year, pastureland, forest cover, fragmentation, urbanisation, and water levels, analysed over three distinct 4-year periods. The study also incorporated poverty levels to examine their influence on municipalities with high malaria risk.

Findings: During the study period, the total deforested area in Pará was 30,000 km2, with 679,846 malaria cases reported. Malaria incidence rates varied across municipalities, with stable rates in high-risk areas, and were linked to pastureland, forest loss, fragmentation, and forest cover. The GWR models effectively captured spatial heterogeneity in these interactions.

Main conclusions: Malaria incidence was associated with areas of Pará State experiencing significant forest loss and fragmentation, indicating that changes in forest composition and configuration influence malaria risk.

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2008-2019年巴西亚马逊地区par州森林砍伐对疟疾发病率的空间影响评估

背景：疟疾传播在热带地区普遍存在，并受到诸如森林砍伐等环境因素的严重影响，这在巴西亚马逊地区，特别是在帕尔州尤为严重。目的：本研究旨在评估par所有144个城市的森林砍伐指标与疟疾发病率之间的关系。方法：利用2008 - 2019年的市级数据，应用地理加权回归（GWR）分析疟疾发病率与森林砍伐指标之间的空间关系。这些指标包括前一年的森林覆盖损失、牧场、森林覆盖、破碎化、城市化和水位，并在三个不同的4年期间进行了分析。该研究还纳入了贫困水平，以审查其对疟疾高风险城市的影响。结果：研究期间，帕尔森林砍伐面积达3万平方公里，报告疟疾病例679846例。各个城市的疟疾发病率各不相同，高风险地区的发病率稳定，并与牧场、森林丧失、破碎化和森林覆盖有关。GWR模型有效地捕捉了这些相互作用的空间异质性。主要结论：疟疾发病率与par州遭受严重森林损失和破碎化的地区有关，这表明森林组成和结构的变化影响疟疾风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz 医学-寄生虫学

CiteScore

5.00

自引率

3.60%

发文量

审稿时长

3-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz is a journal specialized in microbes & their vectors causing human infections. This means that we accept manuscripts covering multidisciplinary approaches and findings in the basic aspects of infectious diseases, e.g. basic in research in prokariotes, eukaryotes, and/or virus. Articles must clearly show what is the main question to be answered, the hypothesis raised, and the contribution given by the study. Priority is given to manuscripts reporting novel mechanisms and general findings concerning the biology of human infectious prokariotes, eukariotes or virus. Papers reporting innovative methods for diagnostics or that advance the basic research with these infectious agents are also welcome. It is important to mention what we do not publish: veterinary infectious agents research, taxonomic analysis and re-description of species, epidemiological studies or surveys or case reports and data re-analysis. Manuscripts that fall in these cases or that are considered of low priority by the journal editorial board, will be returned to the author(s) for submission to another journal.