Lip and Oral Cancer, Caries and Other Oral Conditions: Estimates From the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study and Projections up to 2050

Abstract

Aim

To (i) assess the prevalence, incidence, and burden of lip and oral cavity cancer, untreated caries, and “other oral conditions” (a group that includes temporomandibular disorders, malocclusion, and dental trauma, among others) in 2021; and (ii) forecast their estimates in 2050. Aggregate estimates for overall oral conditions (comprising caries, periodontitis, and edentulism, but excluding cancer) were also evaluated.

Methods

Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and deaths were reported for lip and oral cavity cancer. Untreated caries and “other oral conditions” were described as prevalence and YLDs, with incidence included only for caries. Aggregate estimates for overall oral conditions encompassed prevalence, incidence, and YLDs. Data were gathered globally, covering 204 countries, seven super-regions, and 21 regions from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2021, with projections up to 2050 using mixed-effects models.

Results

In 2021, over 1.54 million (95% UI 1.44; 1.63) people worldwide were affected by lip and oral cavity cancer, with a global age-standardized prevalence of 0.02%. The burden included 1.28 YLDs per 100 000 (0.97; 1.59), 65.86 YLLs per 100 000 (59.53; 71.00), 67.71 DALYs per 100 000 (61.32; 73.17), and 2.42 deaths per 100 000 (2.21; 2.60). By 2050, prevalence and incidence are projected to increase by +68.7% and + 82.6%, respectively. By that time, lip and oral cavity cancer is expected to rank 119th in terms of YLDs. In 2021, 7.55% (6.29–8.78) of children had untreated caries in deciduous teeth, 27.54% (23.98–32.02) of the adult population had caries in permanent teeth, and 1.86% (1.78–1.93) were affected by “other oral conditions”, with 45.91% (42.26–49.78) of the global population experiencing at least one oral condition. By 2050, the prevalence of deciduous caries is projected to decrease by −15.80%, while permanent caries is predicted to rise by +23.77%, and “other oral conditions” will increase by +22.28%. Overall oral conditions (including periodontitis and edentulism, but excluding cancer) are projected to affect 46.17% (42.52–49.95) of the global population in 2050, ranking as the 10th leading cause of YLDs, surpassing conditions such as stroke and Alzheimer's disease.

Conclusion

Lip and oral cavity cancer, along with oral conditions aggregated (caries, periodontitis, edentulism, “other oral conditions”), continued to pose significant public health challenges in 2021, with the number of affected individuals expected to increase substantially in the coming decades, largely driven by rising estimates of edentulism and severe periodontitis.