{"title":"QSM predicts haemorrhage risk in brainstem cavernous malformations: a multicentre prospective study.","authors":"Si-Hui Wang, Hong-Wei Li, Jian-Cong Weng, Yan-Bing Yu, Gui-Jun Zhang, Bo-Han Yao, Pan-Pan Liu, Lu Kong, Hui Zhou, Hao-Yu Zhang, Xiao-Jun Zeng, Ze-Yu Wu, Cong Ren, Wei Wang, Hong-Jun Zhang, Jun-Peng Ma, Xiao-Ying Xu, Lai-Rong Song, Jun-Ting Zhang, Zhen Wu, Liang Wang, Sheng-Jun Sun, Da Li","doi":"10.1136/jnnp-2025-336149","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>This study investigates the predictive value of baseline quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) metrics for assessing the risk of future symptomatic haemorrhages in patients with brainstem cavernous malformations (CMs).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>From July 2020 to September 2023, a prospective multicentre cohort of 155 patients with brainstem CMs was enrolled from 12 institutions. We analysed baseline QSM metrics, including lesional mean, median, IQR and maximum susceptibility. Propensity score matching was adjusted for baseline confounders, and Cox regression models assessed haemorrhage risk. Risk stratification was performed based on thresholds determined from planned receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Postmatching cohorts (56 haemorrhage-free vs 30 haemorrhage cases) showed balanced baseline characteristics. Over a mean follow-up of 22.6 months, the baseline QSM metrics, particularly the median susceptibility (QSMmedian) (HR 58.896, 95% CI 8.544 to 405.989, p<0.001; Bonferroni-adjusted p=0.0001, k=4) and IQR of susceptibility (QSMIQR) (HR 29.754, 95% CI 6.101 to 145.119, p<0.001; Bonferroni-adjusted p=0.0001, k=4) were associated with prospective haemorrhage after adjusting for age, gender, lesion volume and prior haemorrhage. QSMmedian (area under curve (AUC)=0.759) and QSMIQR (AUC=0.740) demonstrated modest predictive performance. Risk stratification based on QSMmedian and QSMIQR demonstrated 2-year haemorrhage-free survival rates of 83.3%, 62.8% and 35.7% for the low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk groups, respectively. High-risk patients showed a 7.7-fold greater risk of haemorrhage compared with the low-risk group.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study explored the predictive value of QSM metrics for future symptomatic haemorrhage, suggesting that QSM may serve as a complementary imaging biomarker to existing prognostic models. Further validation in larger, independent cohorts is warranted.</p>","PeriodicalId":16418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1136/jnnp-2025-336149","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: This study investigates the predictive value of baseline quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) metrics for assessing the risk of future symptomatic haemorrhages in patients with brainstem cavernous malformations (CMs).
Methods: From July 2020 to September 2023, a prospective multicentre cohort of 155 patients with brainstem CMs was enrolled from 12 institutions. We analysed baseline QSM metrics, including lesional mean, median, IQR and maximum susceptibility. Propensity score matching was adjusted for baseline confounders, and Cox regression models assessed haemorrhage risk. Risk stratification was performed based on thresholds determined from planned receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses.
Results: Postmatching cohorts (56 haemorrhage-free vs 30 haemorrhage cases) showed balanced baseline characteristics. Over a mean follow-up of 22.6 months, the baseline QSM metrics, particularly the median susceptibility (QSMmedian) (HR 58.896, 95% CI 8.544 to 405.989, p<0.001; Bonferroni-adjusted p=0.0001, k=4) and IQR of susceptibility (QSMIQR) (HR 29.754, 95% CI 6.101 to 145.119, p<0.001; Bonferroni-adjusted p=0.0001, k=4) were associated with prospective haemorrhage after adjusting for age, gender, lesion volume and prior haemorrhage. QSMmedian (area under curve (AUC)=0.759) and QSMIQR (AUC=0.740) demonstrated modest predictive performance. Risk stratification based on QSMmedian and QSMIQR demonstrated 2-year haemorrhage-free survival rates of 83.3%, 62.8% and 35.7% for the low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk groups, respectively. High-risk patients showed a 7.7-fold greater risk of haemorrhage compared with the low-risk group.
Conclusions: This study explored the predictive value of QSM metrics for future symptomatic haemorrhage, suggesting that QSM may serve as a complementary imaging biomarker to existing prognostic models. Further validation in larger, independent cohorts is warranted.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery & Psychiatry (JNNP) aspires to publish groundbreaking and cutting-edge research worldwide. Covering the entire spectrum of neurological sciences, the journal focuses on common disorders like stroke, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s disease, epilepsy, peripheral neuropathy, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and neuropsychiatry, while also addressing complex challenges such as ALS. With early online publication, regular podcasts, and an extensive archive collection boasting the longest half-life in clinical neuroscience journals, JNNP aims to be a trailblazer in the field.