For how long can the global buildings sector operate as Net-Zero?

Abstract

Reaching Net-Zero emissions is often proposed as the solution to climate change, which can be achieved – it is argued – through large deployment of renewable energy. This paper tests the Net-Zero concept within the global buildings sector by assessing if the sector could operate within its share of renewable energy systems' maximum output under an Energy Return On Investment (EROI) ≥ 10, and for how long it could do so given the amount of minerals needed to build these systems. The paper shows that the sector could become Net-Zero in operation under ‘relaxed’ buildings' energy efficiency rates but, from a minerals' availability perspective, it can only remain so until 2067. Notably, improving energy efficiency could extend this period to 2124. The paper demonstrates the ‘shortsightedness’ of focusing exclusively on CO₂ emissions to limit climate change and questions the extent to which such an approach can truly be considered ‘science-based’.