Assessing the role of storage and thermoelectric plants in the energy transition: a short- and medium-term scenario analysis with Italy as a case study

Abstract

Global warming is pushing many countries worldwide to adopt decarbonization strategies aimed at reducing the dependence on fossil fuels. The successful development of these strategies critically depends on the ability to model and evaluate alternative options, thereby enabling policymakers to identify and implement the most effective solutions. In this context, the present study introduces a detailed operational analysis of the Italian energy system under the 2030 and 2040 horizons, based on authoritative scenarios developed by national transmission system operators. The primary goal is to complement these scenarios by highlighting short- and medium-term operational challenges, particularly concerning the role of thermoelectric power plants and electricity storage systems. To this aim, a set of key performance indicators is introduced to systematically assess scenario impacts. The analysis captures the effects of rising electricity demand, driven by the diffusion of electric vehicles and heat pumps, on system operation, highlighting a projected 25% increase in peak demand along with an 8.3% increase in peak thermoelectric generation. Despite a marked decline in the capacity factor of thermoelectric power plants (from 0.54 to 0.18), these units remain essential to meet demand during extended periods of low renewable generation, with peak capacity requirements remaining close to 40 GW. The results also underscore the role of electricity storage in providing short-term flexibility. However, the benefits of additional storage become marginal beyond 230 GWh of capacity.