Temporal trends and projections of brain and central nervous system cancers burden in the Western Pacific region (1990–2036): insights from the global burden of disease study 2021

IF 1.9 4区医学 Q3 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY

Journal of Clinical Neuroscience Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI:10.1016/j.jocn.2025.111409

Jiannan Tu , Liangwen Shi , Zhuhong Chen , Zhixing Kuang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancers constitute a substantial public health burden in the Western Pacific Region. However, there is a paucity of contemporary, comprehensive epidemiological data on this matter.

Methods

A thorough and methodologically rigorous evaluation of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data was conducted, incorporating key epidemiological indicators such as age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDRs). Temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 were assessed using Joinpoint regression, with decomposition analysis identifying factors driving changes in disease burden. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were employed to project future trends through 2036.

Results

In 2021, the Western Pacific reported 130,080 incident cases (95 % UI: 103,369–158,977), 80,488 deaths (95 % UI: 62,373–100,431), and 2,640,226 DALYs (95 % UI: 2,054,858–3,300,564) from CNS cancers, reflecting increases of 129.8 %, 81.1 %, and 25 % since 1990, respectively. China accounted for 81.13 % of incidence, 85.61 % of mortality, and 85.13 % of DALYs. ASIRs correlated positively with Socio-Demographic Index and per capita healthcare expenditure. Declines in ASDRs and ASMRs were observed in Australia, New Zealand, China, and South Korea, signaling advancements in disease management. However, ASIRs are projected to rise over the next 15 years, driven by increased healthcare investments and socioeconomic development in low- and middle-income countries.

Conclusion

While reductions in ASDRs and ASMRs over 30 years highlight progress in CNS cancer management, rising ASIRs emphasize the urgent need for enhanced prevention, innovative treatment strategies, and equitable healthcare access to address the growing burden and persistent regional disparities.

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西太平洋区域脑和中枢神经系统癌症负担的时间趋势和预测（1990-2036）：来自2021年全球疾病负担研究的见解

脑和中枢神经系统（CNS）癌症构成西太平洋区域重大的公共卫生负担。然而，缺乏关于这一问题的当代综合流行病学数据。方法采用年龄标准化发病率（asir）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMRs）和年龄标准化残疾调整生命年（ASDRs）等关键流行病学指标，对全球疾病负担（GBD） 2021数据进行全面和方法学上严格的评估。使用Joinpoint回归评估1990年至2021年的时间趋势，并通过分解分析确定驱动疾病负担变化的因素。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型被用来预测到2036年的未来趋势。结果2021年，西太平洋报告了130,080例中枢神经系统癌症病例（95% UI: 103,369-158,977）， 80,488例死亡（95% UI: 62,373-100,431）和2,640,226例残疾患者（95% UI: 2,0054,858 - 3,300,564），分别比1990年增加了129.8%，81.1%和25%。中国的发病率占81.13%，死亡率占85.61%，DALYs占85.13%。asir与社会人口指数和人均医疗保健支出呈正相关。在澳大利亚、新西兰、中国和韩国观察到asdr和asmr的下降，这表明疾病管理取得了进展。然而，在低收入和中等收入国家医疗投资增加和社会经济发展的推动下，预计未来15年asir将上升。结论30年来，asdr和asmr的下降凸显了中枢神经系统癌症管理的进步，而asir的上升则表明，迫切需要加强预防、创新治疗策略和公平的医疗服务可及性，以解决日益增长的负担和持续的地区差异。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Clinical Neuroscience 医学-临床神经学

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

402

审稿时长

40 days

期刊介绍： This International journal, Journal of Clinical Neuroscience, publishes articles on clinical neurosurgery and neurology and the related neurosciences such as neuro-pathology, neuro-radiology, neuro-ophthalmology and neuro-physiology. The journal has a broad International perspective, and emphasises the advances occurring in Asia, the Pacific Rim region, Europe and North America. The Journal acts as a focus for publication of major clinical and laboratory research, as well as publishing solicited manuscripts on specific subjects from experts, case reports and other information of interest to clinicians working in the clinical neurosciences.