Emissions and reduction potential of greenhouse gas derived from facility cultivation production: Evidence from China

Abstract

Facility cultivation, a high-input agricultural system critical for food security in China, exhibits disproportionately large greenhouse gas emissions compared to open-field agriculture, yet its emission dynamics remain underexplored. This study develops a comprehensive life-cycle accounting framework to quantify facility cultivation-related greenhouse gas emissions across China's three primary greenhouse types—plastic, solar, and multi-span greenhouses—from 2008 to 2020, while addressing previously overlooked emission sources including agricultural plastic films, climate-control energy use, CO₂ fertilization, and organic matter mineralization. Utilizing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model and scenario analysis, we identify key drivers of emissions and evaluate mitigation potentials. Results revealed that facility cultivation emitted 122.05–371.96 Mt CO₂ equiv. yr⁻¹, with emission intensities (83–226 t CO₂ equiv. ha⁻¹). Soil organic matter decomposition and energy consumption were dominant sources, collectively contributing 67 % of total emissions. Decomposition analysis highlighted agricultural structure expansion (199.23 Mt CO₂ equiv.) and emission efficiency improvements (−213.96 Mt CO₂ equiv.) were primary promotive and mitigative drivers, respectively. Spatial heterogeneity underscored Liaoning Province's disproportionately high emissions, driven by coal-dependent heating, aging infrastructure, and policy incentives. Scenario projections demonstrated an 18.57 % reduction potential through integrated strategies such as clean energy adoption and cultivation structural optimization. These findings establish a refined analytical framework for spatially differentiated mitigation policies, directly supporting China's carbon neutrality roadmap while balancing agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability.