Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: the case of maize in Myanmar

Abstract

Myanmar has experienced a sequence of severe crises beginning in 2019 including the unexpected closure of a principal trade route, COVID-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions, and a military coup leading to years of disruptions in the banking and transport sectors, inflation, and conflict. Despite these cascading shocks Myanmar’s maize sector experienced robust growth in production and exports. This paper examines the key factors underlying this apparent paradox. Our findings contribute to the small but growing literatures on agri-food value chain (AVC) resilience and adaptation by traders – an area of increasing interest from policymakers and development partners due to its important implications for food security and welfare. Using data from several sources, including rare panel data sets of traders and farmers and key informant interviews, we show that crop traders were central to the resilience of Myanmar’s maize value chain during this turbulent period. High global maize prices incentivized traders to adapt and continue trading despite the risks and disruptions, allowing them to perform three critical functions contributing to resilience: (i) market discovery when primary trade routes were closed; (ii) overcoming transportation disruptions and bank closures to move maize from the farmgate to local and export markets; (iii) maintaining flows of credit to farmers throughout the crises in the form of selling inputs on credit and direct cash lending, injecting much needed liquidity amid disruptions in the banking sector and rising input prices. These findings highlight how trader-driven adaptations, supported by favorable prices and returns, sustained the sector’s growth through profound economic and political uncertainty.