Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems

Abstract

Climate change may amplify the frequency and severity of supply-demand mismatches in future power systems with high shares of wind and solar energy^1,2. Here, we use a dispatch optimization model to assess potential increases in hourly costs associated with such climate-intensified gaps under fixed, high penetrations of wind and solar generation. We further explore various strategies to enhance system resilience in the face of future climate change. We find that extreme periods—defined as hours in the upper decile of hourly costs (i.e., the most-costly 10% of hours)—are likely to become more costly in the future in most countries, mainly due to the increased need for investments in flexible energy capacity. For example, under the SSP126 scenario, 47 countries that together account for approximately 43.5% of global future electricity generation are projected to experience more than a 5% increase in average hourly costs during extreme periods, with the largest reaching up to 23.7%. Promisingly, the risk of rising costs could be substantially mitigated through tailored, country-specific strategies involving the coordinated implementation of multiple measures to address supply-demand imbalances and enhance system flexibility. Our findings provide critical insights for building future climate-resilient power systems while reducing system costs.